Ukraine's recent successes in Kursk Oblast may spell doom for Putin – British colonel

Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commanding officer of the UK's Joint CBRN Regiment and NATO's Rapid Reaction Battalion, thinks Ukraine embarrassed Putin at the worst possible time right before Donald Trump's inauguration in the United States.

De Bretton-Gordon is optimistic that 2025 will be a more positive year for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy compared to Russian leader Putin.

"He claims Putin's past espionage skills don't make him a skilled military leader," he argues.

He seems to have forgotten, or quite possibly overlooked, the fundamental principles of warfare, particularly the one that cautions against building on failure rather than capitalizing on success.

The colonel mocked Putin's ongoing "special military operation", estimating that after three years, Zelenskyy would be in power next year, with Putin's best-case scenario being a villa in North Korea or hard labor in the Ural Mountains. He reminded that Russian history has shown no bright prospects for dictators that face defeat.

De Bretton-Gordon noted that the stakes are escalating on both sides in the conflict. He pointed out that Putin has faced setbacks, including a humiliating loss in Syria and in Russia, where a key ally, General Igor Kirillov, was killed right at his doorstep.

At his annual Christmas Q&A session on national and international television, he spoke dishonestly, attempting to present himself as calm and confident, but it's well-known that, in reality, he's frantically trying to keep afloat amidst the turmoil.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to "sacred land" in Kursk Oblast would be returned by Christmas.

"It's starting to look like just one more crushing blow to Putin's power as a new Ukrainian offensive moves forward into eastern territory," he writes.

With the Kursk disaster, Putin's grip on power could be slipping away just as Hitler's was in 1943.

The colonel observed that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have recently delivered a significant setback to Russian troops in the Kursk Oblast, potentially compelling the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade to withdraw from its position in the Kursk Salient.

"Russia's front line in Kursk appears to be precarious, and Ukraine could potentially gain ground instead of merely fighting a defensive battle," De Bretton-Gordon writes.

In a last-ditch effort, President Putin is dispatching one of his most trusted military leaders to the region in a bid to salvage the situation. It appears that Russia has an abundance of seasoned generals to call upon, but its military arsenal is, unfortunately, less capable of countering Ukraine's current successful push.

It seems positively beneficials, in their view. Putin may indeed be operating in a state of "survival mode" considering what's happened in Syria, the killing of General Kirillov, and Ukraine's decision to sever the final gas pipeline route through its territory.

The situation is complicated, and considering Trump's stance, Putin is likely to have a hard time negotiating an agreement that doesn't benefit Ukraine, and if he refuses, he should be prepared for a tough response from Trump, who may even back Ukraine, according to the colonel.

This should give Ukraine another morale boost and is a major setback for Putin, boosting Ukraine's confidence.

"It's clear to anyone watching that he's struggling to maintain a coherent conversation with the nation, and given that Assad's regime has lost control and is now taking a backseat to Putin's influence, it must be a daunting and demoralizing outcome for him," the retired military official notes.

“Putin appears to be aware that former Russian leaders often don't get to enjoy their pension benefits, and he's trying to cut his losses by salvaging Kursk, otherwise risking being placed in a precarious position, perhaps even losing the game.”

The colonel emphasized the importance of NATO countries maintaining their pressure on Putin, leaving no opportunity for him to escape. He believes that if the West sustains its determination, the outlook for Ukraine will show more promise.

The Ukrainian military has launched a new attack in the Kursk Oblast region.

There was news on January 5th that Ukrainian forces had undertaken a new offensive operation in parts of Kursk Oblast.

The Ukrainian government's involvement in the offensive was later indirectly hinted at by Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and directly confirmed by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation.

According to US-based analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, fighting has resumed in Ukraine's advance in at least three areas within Russia's Kursk region, achieving strategic breakthroughs.

US defense analyst David Axe reported on January 5 that Russian and Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast carried out separate but coordinated attacks against each other in multiple directions, with one potential goal being to disrupt the other's operation.

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Section: Russian war

Author: Богуслав Романенко