College Football Playoff’s final 4 teams, ranked by most likely to win national championship

The competition has narrowed down to just four remaining teams from the original field of 12.

Penn State and Notre Dame will face off on January 9, while Texas will match up against Ohio State on January 10.

Rank the final four remaining candidates, in order of their fairness of winning the entire competition.

Let’s dive in.

4. Texas

Running back Cam Skattebo only managed to accumulate 45 yards on the ground, and at first, it seemed like Texas was well on its way to securing a spot in the semifinals.

Then, the second part of the event occurred.

Skattebo and the team miraculously closed the gap, and Skattebo's touchdown run, followed by a successful two-point conversion, resulted in a tie with just five minutes to go in the game. Texas kicker Bert Auburn had two crucial field goal attempts in the final minutes that fell short, and a what initially seemed like a decisive win for Texas became a nail-biting overtime scenario.

The Longhorns have a win, but their next challenge will be extremely difficult. Coming up is Ohio State, which put up a dazzling display against Oregon making them look like the top team in the country. Texas shouldn't rule out a victory, but they will have to perform perfectly on both sides of the field if they want to beat the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl.

3. Penn State

There are two contrasting visions in my mind of Penn State's upcoming performance. On one hand, their star quarterback Drew Allar was unstoppable in the first half, barely missing the opposing defensive backs, while their run game was firing efficiently and their defense was effectively defending every position. In the second half, however, their passing game slowed down and Boise State found some weaknesses in their coverage, particularly with superstar edge rusher Abdul Carter hindered by an injury. Carter's availability and recovery from his injury will play a crucial role in determining Penn State's title prospects, but if Allar can continue to play with the confidence he displayed in the first half, the Nittany Lions will have a good chance of winning it all.

Something to keep in mind going forward: Boise State found success blitzing Allar and Penn State due in large part to the latter's unfamiliarity with the tactic. Given that Penn State already faces a Notre Dame team that has shown a willingness to employ a high-risk, blitz-heavy strategy, this could be a concerning development.

2. Notre Dame

Notre Dame secured a spot in the Orange Bowl with a solid defensive showing against Georgia.

In the final minute of the second quarter, RJ Oben's sack of Gunnar Stockton turned the tide, allowing Notre Dame to add ten points to their score. This momentum shifted further with a kickoff return touchdown by Jayden Harrison to start the third quarter, contributing to Notre Dame's 23-10 victory.

1. Ohio State

When did Happy Gilmore learn how to putt?

Wednesday evening's display by Ohio State in their 41-21 routing of Oregon had a comparable feel to it.

Ohio State's loss to Michigan at the end of the regular season had a big impact on their chances of participating in the Big Ten Championship Game, ultimately costing them that opportunity. In that contest, the Buckeyes relied heavily on the run game up the middle, which was difficult to rely on due to an Achilles injury to center Seth McLaughlin and the fact that Michigan's defensive tackles are quite strong. This approach also didn't produce much on the outside. Moreover, the passing game was struggling, with quarterback Will Howard throwing two interceptions that might have led to the team's decision to focus on running the ball.

Ohio State had a well-rounded performance against the Ducks, as they got their accuracy both from beyond the arc and from their overall passing game.

Adding what's been accomplished against Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense with defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' three-safety base, and you've got a team that's starting to look like the nation's top team so far this season.